Bend Market Report

Prices and inventory levels have both stabilized in Bend, at least for the time being. In October, homes sold for a median of $740,000, just slightly lower than August’ and September’s sale prices.

Meanwhile, inventory has hovered at close to 3 months. While buyer activity is down a fair amount year-over-year, new listing activity is down even further. Expect that trend to continue into the winter months. Homes that have sat on the market may continue to sit on the market as we experience a slower winter than we’ve seen the past few years, when things stayed relatively hot even as temperatures dropped.

October’s market data shows that sellers have come around to the new reality of Bend’s market, with median list prices down to a median of $750,000. Median days on the market continue to hover around 20, and that number should increase as we head into the cold season. If you’re trying to sell your home, it’s important to be patient. Even if buyers demand steep concessions right out of the gate, we are still far from a high inventory market, and sellers may have more leverage than they realize.

Prices and inventory levels have both stabilized in Bend, at least for the time being. In October, homes sold for a median of $740,000, just slightly lower than August’ and September’s sale prices.

Meanwhile, inventory has hovered at close to 3 months. While buyer activity is down a fair amount year-over-year, new listing activity is down even further. Expect that trend to continue into the winter months. Homes that have sat on the market may continue to sit on the market as we experience a slower winter than we’ve seen the past few years, when things stayed relatively hot even as temperatures dropped.

October’s market data shows that sellers have come around to the new reality of Bend’s market, with median list prices down to a median of $750,000. Median days on the market continue to hover around 20, and that number should increase as we head into the cold season. If you’re trying to sell your home, it’s important to be patient. Even if buyers demand steep concessions right out of the gate, we are still far from a high inventory market, and sellers may have more leverage than they realize.

The current state of Bend’s market would have been difficult to predict just a short while ago. Prices heated up in the summer, approaching a median of $800,000 in spite of mortgage rates climbing higher than 7%. We’re back in the $750k range now, but the summer’s price action showed that plenty of buyers still have an appetite for Bend properties, as long as the home is right.

With inventory above 3 months, there’s a lot more homes to choose from now, and properties with less desirable features are sometimes languishing on the market with significant price reductions. In September, homes spend a median of 20 days on the market and sold for an average of 95.5% of their original list price, meaning that sellers are starting to make more concessions.

List prices were signicficantly less aggressive in September than what we saw over the summer, falling to a median of about $750,000. Meanwhile, active inventory sits at a median of $890,000, an all-time high, meaning Bend’s higher-end inventory is sitting on the market longer than it’s lower-end inventory. Even more high-end homes could accumulate as the weather shifts, so that’s a number to watch out for in the months ahead.

Bend’s sale prices took a huge leap in July, rising 8% month-over-month to a median of $799,000, an all-time high even as inventory climbed to over 3 months for the first time since before the pandemic. So what drove that price surge? The answer is a little bit nuanced.

The number of sales in the sub-$700k price range dropped from 116 in June to just 74 in July, a 36% month-over-month decline. Clearly, buyers at price points below Bend’s median are feeling the squeeze from high mortgage rates. Meanwhile, with the onset of the summer buying season, Bend’s luxury market has been less affected.

It’s difficult to say where Bend’s market will go from here. We’ll be watching closely as the summer buying season wraps up. New listings were down a whopping 36% month-over-month in July, indicating that inventory will likely remain flat rather than continuing to accumulate like it has over the past few months.

Home prices in Bend continued their late-spring resurgance in June, rising 1% month-over-month to a median of $737,000. Realistically, this number seems to be a ceiling, at least for the time being. List prices were down 4% month-over-month in June, while days on the market increased from 8 to 13. Homes also sold for a median of 97.4% of their original list price, down from 98% in May.

All of this fits with our prediction of a surge of activity in the spring followed by a flattening in the summer. Inventory is now up to 2.8 months in Bend, which is a point where competition should drop a notch or two. That doesn’t mean we’re expecting prices to collapse, but rather, we expect sale prices to hover around a median of $700,000.

Even though listing activity is down 16% year-over-year, the ratio of new homes entering the market to pending sales is about 3:2. If you’re meaning to list your home this summer or fall, it might be good to do so sooner rather than later, when inventory is likely to be higher.

The market data in Bend is finally reflecting the real onset of the spring and sumer buying season. Time on the market is down to a median of 8 days, while prices are up significantly month-over-month. April’s median sale price was only $669,000. In May, Bend’s median rose to $730,000, higher than any point since July last year.

While higher mortgage rates have undoubtably impacted real estate markets all over, it’s also worth recognizing the seasonal nature of Bend’s market. The winters of 2020/21 and 2021/22 were exceptions to the norm, in which activity and prices decline significantly over the colder months. That especially applies to Bend’s higher-end homes. Surging prices reflect higher activity at the upper end of Bend’s market more than they necessarily reflect appreciation.

Right now, mortgage rates are higher than 7% again after a bit of a reprieve in the earlier spring. That could stifle buyer activity and lead to higher inventory. June’s numbers will reveal a lot about the shape of Bend’s market, so stay tuned.

Sale prices in Bend are continuing to zigzag, with April’s sales hitting a median of $669,000, down 3% month-over-month. One thing to note is that we’re dealing with a pretty small sample size – only 173 sales, down 39% year-over-year. It’s hard to extrapolate a trend from these kinds of numbers, but if we zoom out a bit, sale prices have basically been flat over the past few months.

We had predicted a surge of activity in the spring months, and so far it hasn’t materialized in Bend. In particular, new listings were actually down 13% month-over-month. Homes are selling faster, however. We’re back down to a median of 11 days, and that’s a good sign for sellers.

However, we’re seeing buyers hesitate more at the upper end of Bend’s market. Now that the weather’s turning, more higher-end homes are hitting the market, but buyer activity is still concentrated at lower price points. Affordability is very much a concern, and that could keep prices down even as competition ramps up for less expensive properties.

Two trends have defined Bend’s market in the past couple of months: prices dropping and homes spending significantly longer on the market. But March’s numbers indicate that the tide is shifting heading in the spring.

In March, Bend homes spent a median of just 14 days on the market, down from 56 days just a month earlier. In other words, buyers are beginning to bite even before the weather in Bend really starts to turn. That corresponded with a 60% month-over-month jump in new listings. Bend’s market isn’t exactly flush with homes, with inventory levels remaining relatively flat in spite of that. But this could be a preview of a busy spring buying season, at least relative to the action we saw over the winter.

Like we mentioned, prices are up again, with homes selling for a median of $690k in March. That’s still 10% lower than what we saw a year ago, but we expect sale prices to climb further in the months ahead perhaps before leveling off in the summer.

Going by the official numbers, Bend’s residential inventory remained flat in February, but by the end of the month, active listings had dropped month-over-month while buyer activity was higher. Year-over-year, new listings were down 40%, while pending sales were down only 26%. That means Bend’s market is now a bit more competitive for buyers than it was earlier in the winter.

You wouldn’t know it, though, from the amount of time properties are sitting on the market. February saw a huge leap from 38 days up to a median of 56 days. That was reflected February’s sale prices, which dropped 3% month-over-month to a median of $659,000.

In general, Bend sellers need to be patient right now. Still, the strategy you need to take is completely dependent upon your individual property and what your goals are. In February, 40 homes went pending in less than a week, and this group includes properties all the way from the starter to $1.5 million-plus luxury ranges. Meanwhile, 46 homes lingered on the market for longer than 4 months, again at various price points. Location, level of finishes, and overall uniqueness definitely make a difference. But the most important thing is to price your home correctly from the get-go.

Even homes that are going off the market fast aren’t selling for much more (if any) than list price. In fact, the numbers show that some sellers are willing to accept low offers even in the first week of being on the market. That may actually be the wrong approach – it can be good to test the market, but if you start out too aggressive, it will almost certainly harm your bottom line.

January’s numbers showcase a significant bump in market activity, with pending sales up 56% month-over-month and new listings up 79% month-over-month. Bend’s median sale price also went up 3% month-over-month after a particularly desolate December. Inventory dropped from 1.9 to 1.6 months, and we expect that pattern to continue until temperatures start to warm up.

Homes are still spending a lot longer on the market than at just about any point since the pandemic started. With homes lingering on the market, price reductions have become normalized, with homes going for a median of 92.9% of their original list price.

We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: it’s important to price your home correctly. Sellers are getting the message, with January’s median list price down 7% month-over-month to $725k. That helped drive more buyer activity in January.

December marked the first year-over-year sale price decline that we’ve seen in Bend since the first half of 2020. Prices are also down 5% month-over-month. Time on the market is up significantly to a median of 37 days.

Last month, we suggested that at least part of the equation is a decline in activity at the upper end of Bend’s market. A year ago, million-dollar-plus homes were still flying off the market. That isn’t the case now, so prices look much lower in comparison.

One of the more interesting tidbits from December’s numbers is the extraordinarily low amount of new listing activity. 80 listings is the lowest number that we have on record. It isn’t just a matter of Bend’s normal seasonal dynamics: people just aren’t putting their homes on the market.

Bend’s inventory is especially flush in the $500-650k range. It may only be a matter of time, though, before we see another inventory crunch, especially in the $650k to $1 million range.

While buyer activity in Bend has continued to slide downward, November’s numbers show that – for the time being – the market here has reached a kind of equilibrium.

Inventory, however, remains flat month-over-month. That’s because new listings are down almost as much as pending sales. Would-be sellers have little incentive to put their homes on the market, especially if they bought when mortgage rates were much lower.

Sellers got slightly more aggressive in November, with list prices increasing to a median of $720,000, up 3% month-over-month. That corresponds with a slight decrease in inventory. There are plenty of buyers still looking in Bend who are willing to pay a premium – for the right property.

October’s numbers represent a continuation of what we saw last month in Bend. Buyer activity is down significantly – 42% year-over-year as measured by pending sales. Meanwhile, properties continue to spend longer on the market, reaching a median of 30 days in October.

Inventory, however, remains flat month-over-month. That’s because new listings are down almost as much as pending sales. Would-be sellers have little incentive to put their homes on the market, especially if they bought when mortgage rates were much lower.

Prices have zig-zagged somewhat in Bend over the past couple months. October’s median sale price of $680,000 represents a month-over-month decline of 6%. A slowdown in luxury home sales – typical for the season – accounts for part of that decline. Still, homes are selling for less in Bend than they have at any point since December 2021.

In October, homes sold for an average of 94.6% of their original list price, a decline of about 1% month-over-month. List prices in Bend are flat, however, indicating that seller expectations are still somewhat inflated.

Over the past number of months, home prices in Bend have trended downward. September marked a reversal, with sale prices up 3% month-over-month. Still, the past month’s pending sale data indicates that October’s numbers will likely come in closer to $700k again. We expect prices to hover right around there for the time being.

If you’re hoping to sell your home, that isn’t terrible news at least. Still, average time on the market is climbing significantly, which is leading some sellers to start panicking.

How much you’ll need to compromise will depend entirely on the location of your home, overall condition, and level of finishes. Generally speaking, it’s important to be patient in the current market, but it may be necessary to contemplate significant price reductions depending on how aggressive you were out the gate.

In September, Bend’s inventory dropped slightly month-over-month, which is completely in line with the usual seasonal trend. Inventory should continue to decline heading into the winter. Needless to say though, homes won’t be as scarce in Bend as they were the past two winters.

The data that’s come in over the past several months has suggested price drops on the horizon for Bend’s market, but now they’ve finally materialized. August’s median sale price of $703,000 represents a 5% month-over-month decline and about a 12% drop from Bend’s record high.

Those numbers place Bend’s market in “correction” but not “crash” territory. The important question to ask, though, is – will property values will slide further from here?

The answer at this stage appears to be no. Homes are spending much longer on the market, but they’re still going for 96% of list price on average. Homes that went pending in August had a median list price of $747,000, meaning September’s sale prices will almost certainly be higher than August’s.

Meanwhile, buyer activity is down year-over-year, but new listing activity is down even futher. Housing supply basically stayed flat between July and August, meaning Bend’s inventory has likely peaked for this year at least.

There’s no selloff on the horizon. Still, sellers were significantly less ambitious in August, listing their homes for a median of $697,000. There are definitely more “deals” to be had then there were earlier this year, but prices are still up 11% year-over-year.

In July, inventory rose significantly in Bend while overall activity dropped significantly both for buyers and sellers. But after a surge of new listings in May and June, we’re seeing indications of a reversal.

New listings were down 21% month-over-month, so Bend’s inventory is likely to increase at a slower pace through the rest of the summer. However, buyer activity is down 35% year-over-year for closed sales and 33% year-over-year for pending sales.

Higher interest rates have made Bend’s market basically unaffordable for many buyers. Prices have barely budged, down just 0.4% month-over-month. That’s about 6% lower than the record highs we saw in February, but it’s still 9% higher than what we saw last summer.

As a result, Bend’s inventory has reached a point where homes are spending longer and longer on the market. A median of 11 days is still plenty fast, but that’s up from 6 days just a month ago. Sellers will need to adjust their expectations accordingly, and it’s more important than ever before to price your home appropriately.

Inventory continues to creep upward in Bend, rising to 1.86 months in June. Meanwhile, prices have dropped only slightly, and the median time spent on the market is still less than a week. So how should we make sense of the conflicting signals?

By and large, sellers haven’t gotten less aggressive even as Bend’s market has cooled down. The median listing price in June was $799,000, a record high. June sales went for an average of 99.7% of list price, indicating that perhaps this isn’t the wrong approach.

But what’s shifted in Bend’s market is that now, buyers can be much more selective. The properties that are selling in Bend are still selling for top dollar, and they’re going off the market about as fast as they did at the peak.

But plenty of properties aren’t selling. Buyers aren’t willing to pay a premium anymore for properties that involve some kind of compromise. Price reductions are becoming more common, and time spent on the market is definitely increasing – it just isn’t reflected in the numbers quite yet.

Depending on what kind of property you have – and how eager you are to sell it – it may be necessary to go on the market a fair amount lower than you might have a few months ago. Meanwhile, buyers can start to enjoy a bit more leverage – but it depends, of course, on what you’re looking for, and interest rates aren’t exactly going down.

It’s all over the news that real estate markets are cooling down nationwide. That’s true of Bend’s market, and the mood among buyers, sellers, and their agents is undeniably shifting. But it’s important that we qualify exactly what we mean by a “cooldown.”

Bend’s sale prices peaked in February 2022 at a median of $787,500. May’s numbers show a median sale price of $750,000, a 5% drop.

That doesn’t mean Bend’s market is in free fall. The homes that went pending in May were listed at a median of $750,000, and homes in Bend are still selling at an average of 0.6% over list price, indicating that sale prices are unlikely to drop further in June.

The numbers we saw in the late winter were simply unsustainable, caused by historically low inventory at all price points. Now, instead of “historically low,” Bend’s inventory is just “super low.” Yes, 1.4 months is a big jump, but Bend is still very much a sellers’ market.

Inventory should continue to increase through the summer, but buyers will continue to get excited about properties with the most desirable features in the most desirable locations. Interest rates peaked in the middle of May but have dropped a bit since.

As a seller, you may have the kind of property that is almost certain to attract a bidding war, or you may have the kind of property that doesn’t stand out so much from the competition. But in either case, it’s as important as ever to price your home correctly.

Properties are still going off the market in a median of just 5 days, and sitting on the market for too long will still cause you to lose a lot of leverage. Your home needs to be listed at a price that attracts the maximum interest out of the gate, and potentially multiple offers. Buyers are still anxious after losing out over the past few very competitive months and are still willing to put quite a bit on the table.

While we don’t see the bottom-line shifting too much from here in terms of sale prices, it could very well be easier to sell your home now than it will be in a few months, when inventory should be higher.

April’s numbers show a clear shift starting to take place in Bend’s market. Pending sales are down 11% month-over-month, while new listings are up 13%. As a result, Bend’s inventory shot up from 0.67 months in March 2022 to 1 month at the end of April.

One month of inventory is still very low, and most properties are still going off the market as fast as ever. But March and April’s numbers indicate that Bend’s market is starting to depressurize. Anecdotally, at the end of April, we started to see properties sit on the market longer, and we predict that the shift will be even more visible in May’s numbers.

With that said, Bend’s median sale price stayed flat in April, hovering near record highs at $775,000. The trendline for list prices in Bend is still moving upward.

Bend’s market could very well reach a tipping point in the next couple of months where more properties start to sell for below list price. In April, though homes still went for an average of 2.5% above list.

First, the good news: inventory is up significantly in Bend after plunging to record lows during the late winter. New listings are up 35% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year, while buyer activity is lagging behind last year’s.

The bad news: although sale prices have dropped 2% month-over-month, they’re still really, really high. Some relief may be in sight, however.

March’s pending sales had a median list price of just $680,000. Granted, homes have been selling for well above list price in Bend, but that should give us a basic sense of what sale prices should look like in April. We could certainly see prices drop 10% month-over-month.

Context is important, though. The winter months of 2021-22 were exceptionally active for properties at the higher end of Bend’s market, but now properties at the lower end are getting bought up, and that’s shifting the numbers. Pending sales are down year-over-year in the $1.3 million-plus range, making it look like sellers are capitulating more than they actually are.

In other words, buyers in the sub-$700k range may not find much relief in spite of Bend’s shifting bottom line. With interest rates rising more quickly than anticipated, even if prices do drop somewhat, financed buyers won’t have any more purchasing power than they did before. On the other hand, more and more people will be pushed out of Bend’s market, and buyers are likely to have more choices earlier on than they did in 2021.