It wouldn’t be hyperbole to say there’s been a buyer’s rush in Bend these past several months. Through July, four homes went pending for every three that went on the market.
This continuing inventory crunch has created significant upward pressure on prices. Last month saw residential properties properties in Bend go for a record median of $534,950, 15% higher than a year earlier.
In comparision, Bend’s market appreciated 6% in 2019. That figure is still well above the national average of 3-5%, but 15% is just off the charts.
In July, new homes were listed at a median of $659k. That’s a record high, but it’s only $10k higher than in June, when the median list price went up a whopping $50k as sellers realized the pandemic wasn’t keeping buyers away.
15% may prove to be an anomaly, but looking closer at the data, buyers shouldn’t expect relief any time too soon. The long and short of it is that Bend is running out of inventory.
Pending sales activity is up more than 50% year-over-year while seller activity is down across all price points. Some segments of Bend’s market are even hotter.
Activity has increased the most year-over-year in Bend’s luxury market, with pending sales of $1 million-plus homes doubling compared to July 2019. New listings are also up a bit (22%), but total inventory is down 60%. Only 2 months of inventory of million-dollar-plus homes remain, which is unprecedented in Bend’s market.
The next hottest price point is the $600-800k range, with a 76% year-over-year increase in buyer activity. New listings lag behind pending sales by 42%, which means the upper-middle end of Bend’s market is starting to get very tight.
The $350-500k range isn’t far behind, with 71% more buyer activity than a year ago and 40% less new listings than pending sales.
These numbers are a big deal, but the real headline is this: in July, inventory across Bend’s entire residential market fell below 1 month for the first time ever. As of the end of the month, there were 323 active sub-$800k residential properties in Bend compared to 843 the previous year.
Let that number sink in for a bit: that’s a 62% drop. Inventory starts to climb a bit above that price point, but as we saw above, it’s still shrinking.
If anything, prices have the potential to escalate even further. Any influx of new listings may be too little, too late.
Once mortgage forebearance options run out and certain segments of the economy still haven’t recovered from COVID-19, people will have to put their homes on the market. The question, though, is whether broader economic currents will have an effect upon the demographics that are currently flocking to Bend.
Investor dollars aren’t what’s inflating Bend’s market right now–it’s people who want to live here and now can because of the remote work revolution. The floodgates have opened, and new construction will start to catch up, but this could be the new reality of Bend’s market for now.
Eugene Real Estate Market Report for July 2020
The numbers in Eugene look a bit more pedestrian than Bend’s. Buyer activity is up year-over-year and seller activity is down somewhat. It’s important to note, however, that Eugene’s inventory heading into the pandemic was significantly lower than Bend’s, meaning that there was less wiggle room to begin with.
As of publication, only 252 residential properties are available for sale in Eugene. Using July’s pending sales numbers as our basis, that translates to just 0.73 months of inventory. Eugene’s inventory shortage is still lower than Bend’s, and the pandemic is pushing it further into uncharted territory.
That’s the reason for the 14% year-over-year appreciation that we’re seeing between this summer and the last. Buyers are getting more desperate, and they’re willing to pay more for less.
Unsurprisingly, Eugene is seeing the biggest decrease in inventory in the sub-$300k range. In June and July, new listings at this price point dropped 63%, while pending sales dropped just 26%.
Buyer demand, meanwhile, has increased the most sharply in the $450-600k range, rising 84% year-over-year. New listings have increased slightly–9%–but it isnt nearly enough to account for the increased demand.
The dynamic is similar, though less pronounced at higher price points. There just isn’t much inventory period in Eugene’s premium or luxury ranges. At present, there are only 23 active listings in the $800k-plus range. 12 went pending in July, a new record, which could be a sign of even tighter inventory down the road for luxury buyers.