Eugene Market Report

If you're a buyer waiting for things to cool off a bit before you dip your toes in Eugene's market, it might be time to reassess the situation. Eugene's market is hardly cooling at all, in spite of all the reports we're seeing nationwide about hot housing markets falling back to earth. &&&Through May, homes sold for an average of 3.6% over list price. May's median sale price of $463,000 is 3% lower than April's record high of $478,000, but the trendline is still intact: prices in Eugene have yet to flatten. &&&So why is Eugene's market bucking the trend that we're seeing in other locales? The reason is simple: inventory remains incredibly low. &&&It's typical to see listing activity ramp up considerably heading into the summer, but new listings were up only 11% month-over-month in May and down 13% year-over-year. We did have an usually cool and rainy May, so that could be a contributing factor. &&&Buyer activity - as measured by pending sales - is down too. Mortgage rates are the obvious culprit. But there just hasn't been enough seller activity to move the needle, and those who do list their homes are continuing to be aggressive. &&&Homes listed in May went on the market at a record median of $475,000. Buyers should have slightly more choices in the months ahead, but we simply don't foresee any dramatic shifts in Eugene's market. 

In April, Eugene saw the single largest month-over-month price hike on record. The median sale price for all residential properties rose 10% to $478,000. &&&Meanwhile, inventory largely remained flat, but there were 15% more new listings in April than pending sales. &&&During the spring season, it's typical to see inventory start to increase. We aren't seeing a big surge that would indicate too many buyers are shying away from Eugene's market due to higher mortgage rates, which have hovered around 5.5% locally. &&&We predict that there will be an incremental shift toward less buyer activity, and it's tempting to imagine that prices will flatten from here. There are no guarantees, though. For now, the spring buying season is just as frenzied as ever in Eugene. 

Inventory is up and prices are down. That's exactly the scenario that Eugene's buyers have been waiting for, right? &&&Well, not so fast. No discussion of the real estate market in March is complete without mention of the significant mortgage rate increases we've seen over the past few weeks. In Oregon, 30-year-fixed rates are hovering right around the 5% mark. That means home shoppers have less buying power than before, and it's natural that prices would start to ease off. &&&That trend will be short-lived though. We're just entering into the beginning of Eugene's usual spring buying frenzy, and there are still plenty of buyers left with cash to throw around. The 211 properties that were pending at the end of March had a median ask price of $455,000, and that offers a good preview of what sale prices will look like in April.  &&&Meanwhile, homes are selling just as fast as they did the last year, and buyer activity is up more than seller activity. We expect this momentum to continue through the spring, even as mortgage rates continue to climb. Prices could flatten in the $450-460k range, but there's no guarantee. Inventory will likely move closer to 1 month during the next chunk of time, but competition for the most desirable properties will be as fierce as ever.

It keeps happening month after month, but Eugene's inventory of residential properties dropped to record lows again in February. Unsurprisingly, sale prices climbed to record highs, though Eugene's 2% month-over-month appreciation is still well behind what we're seeing right now in Bend. &&&At the same time, new listings are up more than pending sales year-over-year, so we should be right at the edge of a (minor) reversal. More inventory will mean more choices for buyers in the spring, but there's going to be competition. It's been an exceptionally barren winter for home shoppers at all price points in Eugene, and a surge of FOMO is incredibly likely. &&&Mind you, we won't see that reflected in next month's sale prices. Pending sales in February were listed at a median of only $414,000. To put it bluntly, Eugene's higher-end inventory sucks right now. Buyers at higher price points are waiting, while at lower price points, buyers are grabbing up properties while interest rates are still low and prices are still staying (relatively) flat. &&&They won't be flat for long. By April, Eugene's median sale price should climb up to a new, higher tier in spite of inventory being slightly higher. 

Through the first month of 2022, inventory increased slightly, with new listings up 45% month-over-month. That's a promising signal if you've been looking for a home in Eugene and have started to feel discouraged. But prices are up too, rising 4% month-over-month to a median sale price of $440,000 in January. &&&That isn't surprising. Inventory reached a record low of just 0.4 months in December, creating the conditions for exceptional competition among buyers. Sellers took advantage, with list prices hitting a record of $445,000. &&&Even though January's sales numbers are low, that's more a reflection of limited choices than a lack of buyer demand. As we see in January's pending sale numbers, up 25% month-over-month, buyers aren't necessarily waiting until the spring to start shopping for homes. But a number of others are likely waiting in the wings, especially those looking for homes in Eugene's most sought-after neighborhoods. &&&If new properties continue to come on the market a bit faster than buyers are purchasing them, price growth may stay relatively flat until the spring. But there's no guarantee of that, and Eugene's market will almost certainly reach new highs by the end of the winter.

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