Bend Market Report

Bend's market saw a significant slowdown in November, but sale prices stayed relatively flat, dropping 1% month-over-month to a median of $729,000. Only 118 properties went pending, down 15% year-over-year [...]

Prices and inventory levels have both stabilized in Bend, at least for the time being. In October, homes sold for a median of $740,000, just slightly lower than August' and September's sale prices. Meanwhile, inventory has hovered at close to 3 months. While buyer activity is down a fair amount year-over-year, new listing activity is down even further. Expect that trend to continue into the winter months. Homes that have sat on the market may continue to sit on the market as we experience a slower winter than we've seen the past few years, when things stayed relatively hot even as temperatures dropped. October's market data shows that sellers have come around to the new reality of Bend's market, with median list prices down to a median of $750,000. Median days on the market continue to hover around 20, and that number should increase as we head into the cold season. If you're trying to sell your home, it's important to be patient. Even if buyers demand steep concessions right out of the gate, we are still far from a high inventory market, and sellers may have more leverage than they realize.

The current state of Bend's market would have been difficult to predict just a short while ago. Prices heated up in the summer, approaching a median of $800,000 in spite of mortgage rates climbing higher than 7%. We're back in the $750k range now, but the summer's price action showed that plenty of buyers still have an appetite for Bend properties, as long as the home is right. &&& With inventory above 3 months, there's a lot more homes to choose from now, and properties with less desirable features are sometimes languishing on the market with significant price reductions. In September, homes spend a median of 20 days on the market and sold for an average of 95.5% of their original list price, meaning that sellers are starting to make more concessions. &&& List prices were signicficantly less aggressive in September than what we saw over the summer, falling to a median of about $750,000. Meanwhile, active inventory sits at a median of $890,000, an all-time high, meaning Bend's higher-end inventory is sitting on the market longer than it's lower-end inventory. Even more high-end homes could accumulate as the weather shifts, so that's a number to watch out for in the months ahead.

Bend's sale prices took a huge leap in July, rising 8% month-over-month to a median of $799,000, an all-time high even as inventory climbed to over 3 months for the first time since before the pandemic. So what drove that price surge? The answer is a little bit nuanced. &&& The number of sales in the sub-$700k price range dropped from 116 in June to just 74 in July, a 36% month-over-month decline. Clearly, buyers at price points below Bend's median are feeling the squeeze from high mortgage rates. Meanwhile, with the onset of the summer buying season, Bend's luxury market has been less affected. &&& It's difficult to say where Bend's market will go from here. We'll be watching closely as the summer buying season wraps up. New listings were down a whopping 36% month-over-month in July, indicating that inventory will likely remain flat rather than continuing to accumulate like it has over the past few months.

Home prices in Bend continued their late-spring resurgance in June, rising 1% month-over-month to a median of $737,000. Realistically, this number seems to be a ceiling, at least for the time being. List prices were down 4% month-over-month in June, while days on the market increased from 8 to 13. Homes also sold for a median of 97.4% of their original list price, down from 98% in May. &&& All of this fits with our prediction of a surge of activity in the spring followed by a flattening in the summer. Inventory is now up to 2.8 months in Bend, which is a point where competition should drop a notch or two. That doesn't mean we're expecting prices to collapse, but rather, we expect sale prices to hover around a median of $700,000. &&& Even though listing activity is down 16% year-over-year, the ratio of new homes entering the market to pending sales is about 3:2. If you're meaning to list your home this summer or fall, it might be good to do so sooner rather than later, when inventory is likely to be higher.

The market data in Bend is finally reflecting the real onset of the spring and sumer buying season. Time on the market is down to a median of 8 days, while prices are up significantly month-over-month. April's median sale price was only $669,000. In May, Bend's median rose to $730,000, higher than any point since July last year. &&& While higher mortgage rates have undoubtably impacted real estate markets all over, it's also worth recognizing the seasonal nature of Bend's market. The winters of 2020/21 and 2021/22 were exceptions to the norm, in which activity and prices decline significantly over the colder months. That especially applies to Bend's higher-end homes. Surging prices reflect higher activity at the upper end of Bend's market more than they necessarily reflect appreciation. &&& Right now, mortgage rates are higher than 7% again after a bit of a reprieve in the earlier spring. That could stifle buyer activity and lead to higher inventory. June's numbers will reveal a lot about the shape of Bend's market, so stay tuned.

Sale prices in Bend are continuing to zigzag, with April's sales hitting a median of $669,000, down 3% month-over-month. One thing to note is that we're dealing with a pretty small sample size - only 173 sales, down 39% year-over-year. It's hard to extrapolate a trend from these kinds of numbers, but if we zoom out a bit, sale prices have basically been flat over the past few months. &&& We had predicted a surge of activity in the spring months, and so far it hasn't materialized in Bend. In particular, new listings were actually down 13% month-over-month. Homes are selling faster, however. We're back down to a median of 11 days, and that's a good sign for sellers. &&& However, we're seeing buyers hesitate more at the upper end of Bend's market. Now that the weather's turning, more higher-end homes are hitting the market, but buyer activity is still concentrated at lower price points. Affordability is very much a concern, and that could keep prices down even as competition ramps up for less expensive properties.

Two trends have defined Bend's market in the past couple of months: prices dropping and homes spending significantly longer on the market. But March's numbers indicate that the tide is shifting heading in the spring. &&& In March, Bend homes spent a median of just 14 days on the market, down from 56 days just a month earlier. In other words, buyers are beginning to bite even before the weather in Bend really starts to turn. That corresponded with a 60% month-over-month jump in new listings. Bend's market isn't exactly flush with homes, with inventory levels remaining relatively flat in spite of that. But this could be a preview of a busy spring buying season, at least relative to the action we saw over the winter. &&& Like we mentioned, prices are up again, with homes selling for a median of $690k in March. That's still 10% lower than what we saw a year ago, but we expect sale prices to climb further in the months ahead perhaps before leveling off in the summer.