Bend Market Report

Going by the official numbers, Bend’s residential inventory remained flat in February, but by the end of the month, active listings had dropped month-over-month while buyer activity was higher. Year-over-year, new listings were down 40%, while pending sales were down only 26%. That means Bend’s market is now a bit more competitive for buyers than it was earlier in the winter. &&&You wouldn’t know it, though, from the amount of time properties are sitting on the market. February saw a huge leap from 38 days up to a median of 56 days. That was reflected February’s sale prices, which dropped 3% month-over-month to a median of $659,000. &&&In general, Bend sellers need to be patient right now. Still, the strategy you need to take is completely dependent upon your individual property and what your goals are. In February, 40 homes went pending in less than a week, and this group includes properties all the way from the starter to $1.5 million-plus luxury ranges. Meanwhile, 46 homes lingered on the market for longer than 4 months, again at various price points. Location, level of finishes, and overall uniqueness definitely make a difference. But the most important thing is to price your home correctly from the get-go. &&&Even homes that are going off the market fast aren’t selling for much more (if any) than list price. In fact, the numbers show that some sellers are willing to accept low offers even in the first week of being on the market. That may actually be the wrong approach - it can be good to test the market, but if you start out too aggressive, it will almost certainly harm your bottom line.

January's numbers showcase a significant bump in market activity, with pending sales up 56% month-over-month and new listings up 79% month-over-month. Bend's median sale price also went up 3% month-over-month after a particularly desolate December. Inventory dropped from 1.9 to 1.6 months, and we expect that pattern to continue until temperatures start to warm up. &&&Homes are still spending a lot longer on the market than at just about any point since the pandemic started. With homes lingering on the market, price reductions have become normalized, with homes going for a median of 92.9% of their original list price. &&&We've said it before, but it bears repeating: it's important to price your home correctly. Sellers are getting the message, with January's median list price down 7% month-over-month to $725k. That helped drive more buyer activity in January.

December marked the first year-over-year sale price decline that we've seen in Bend since the first half of 2020. Prices are also down 5% month-over-month. Time on the market is up significantly to a median of 37 days. &&& Last month, we suggested that at least part of the equation is a decline in activity at the upper end of Bend's market. A year ago, million-dollar-plus homes were still flying off the market. That isn't the case now, so prices look much lower in comparison. &&& One of the more interesting tidbits from December's numbers is the extraordinarily low amount of new listing activity. 80 listings is the lowest number that we have on record. It isn't just a matter of Bend's normal seasonal dynamics: people just aren't putting their homes on the market. &&& Bend's inventory is especially flush in the $500-650k range. It may only be a matter of time, though, before we see another inventory crunch, especially in the $650k to $1 million range.

While buyer activity in Bend has continued to slide downward, November’s numbers show that - for the time being - the market here has reached a kind of equilibrium. &&& Inventory, however, remains flat month-over-month. That's because new listings are down almost as much as pending sales. Would-be sellers have little incentive to put their homes on the market, especially if they bought when mortgage rates were much lower. &&& Sellers got slightly more aggressive in November, with list prices increasing to a median of $720,000, up 3% month-over-month. That corresponds with a slight decrease in inventory. There are plenty of buyers still looking in Bend who are willing to pay a premium - for the right property. &&&

October's numbers represent a continuation of what we saw last month in Bend. Buyer activity is down significantly - 42% year-over-year as measured by pending sales. Meanwhile, properties continue to spend longer on the market, reaching a median of 30 days in October. &&& Inventory, however, remains flat month-over-month. That's because new listings are down almost as much as pending sales. Would-be sellers have little incentive to put their homes on the market, especially if they bought when mortgage rates were much lower. &&& Prices have zig-zagged somewhat in Bend over the past couple months. October's median sale price of $680,000 represents a month-over-month decline of 6%. A slowdown in luxury home sales - typical for the season - accounts for part of that decline. Still, homes are selling for less in Bend than they have at any point since December 2021. &&& In October, homes sold for an average of 94.6% of their original list price, a decline of about 1% month-over-month. List prices in Bend are flat, however, indicating that seller expectations are still somewhat inflated.

Over the past number of months, home prices in Bend have trended downward. September marked a reversal, with sale prices up 3% month-over-month. Still, the past month’s pending sale data indicates that October’s numbers will likely come in closer to $700k again. We expect prices to hover right around there for the time being. &&&If you’re hoping to sell your home, that isn’t terrible news at least. Still, average time on the market is climbing significantly, which is leading some sellers to start panicking. &&&How much you’ll need to compromise will depend entirely on the location of your home, overall condition, and level of finishes. Generally speaking, it’s important to be patient in the current market, but it may be necessary to contemplate significant price reductions depending on how aggressive you were out the gate. &&&In September, Bend’s inventory dropped slightly month-over-month, which is completely in line with the usual seasonal trend. Inventory should continue to decline heading into the winter. Needless to say though, homes won’t be as scarce in Bend as they were the past two winters.

The data that’s come in over the past several months has suggested price drops on the horizon for Bend’s market, but now they’ve finally materialized. August’s median sale price of $703,000 represents a 5% month-over-month decline and about a 12% drop from Bend’s record high. &&&Those numbers place Bend’s market in “correction” but not “crash” territory. The important question to ask, though, is – will property values will slide further from here? &&&The answer at this stage appears to be no. Homes are spending much longer on the market, but they’re still going for 96% of list price on average. Homes that went pending in August had a median list price of $747,000, meaning September’s sale prices will almost certainly be higher than August’s. &&&Meanwhile, buyer activity is down year-over-year, but new listing activity is down even futher. Housing supply basically stayed flat between July and August, meaning Bend’s inventory has likely peaked for this year at least. &&&There’s no selloff on the horizon. Still, sellers were significantly less ambitious in August, listing their homes for a median of $697,000. There are definitely more “deals” to be had then there were earlier this year, but prices are still up 11% year-over-year.

In July, inventory rose significantly in Bend while overall activity dropped significantly both for buyers and sellers. But after a surge of new listings in May and June, we’re seeing indications of a reversal. &&&New listings were down 21% month-over-month, so Bend’s inventory is likely to increase at a slower pace through the rest of the summer. However, buyer activity is down 35% year-over-year for closed sales and 33% year-over-year for pending sales. &&&Higher interest rates have made Bend’s market basically unaffordable for many buyers. Prices have barely budged, down just 0.4% month-over-month. That’s about 6% lower than the record highs we saw in February, but it’s still 9% higher than what we saw last summer. &&&As a result, Bend’s inventory has reached a point where homes are spending longer and longer on the market. A median of 11 days is still plenty fast, but that’s up from 6 days just a month ago. Sellers will need to adjust their expectations accordingly, and it’s more important than ever before to price your home appropriately.