Bend Market Report

Inventory continues to creep upward in Bend, rising to 1.86 months in June. Meanwhile, prices have dropped only slightly, and the median time spent on the market is still less than a week. So how should we make sense of the conflicting signals? &&&By and large, sellers haven’t gotten less aggressive even as Bend’s market has cooled down. The median listing price in June was $799,000, a record high. June sales went for an average of 99.7% of list price, indicating that perhaps this isn’t the wrong approach. &&&But what’s shifted in Bend’s market is that now, buyers can be much more selective. The properties that are selling in Bend are still selling for top dollar, and they’re going off the market about as fast as they did at the peak. &&&But plenty of properties aren’t selling. Buyers aren’t willing to pay a premium anymore for properties that involve some kind of compromise. Price reductions are becoming more common, and time spent on the market is definitely increasing – it just isn’t reflected in the numbers quite yet. &&&Depending on what kind of property you have – and how eager you are to sell it – it may be necessary to go on the market a fair amount lower than you might have a few months ago. Meanwhile, buyers can start to enjoy a bit more leverage – but it depends, of course, on what you’re looking for, and interest rates aren’t exactly going down.

It’s all over the news that real estate markets are cooling down nationwide. That’s true of Bend’s market, and the mood among buyers, sellers, and their agents is undeniably shifting. But it’s important that we qualify exactly what we mean by a “cooldown.” &&&Bend’s sale prices peaked in February 2022 at a median of $787,500. May’s numbers show a median sale price of $750,000, a 5% drop. &&&That doesn’t mean Bend’s market is in free fall. The homes that went pending in May were listed at a median of $750,000, and homes in Bend are still selling at an average of 0.6% over list price, indicating that sale prices are unlikely to drop further in June. &&&The numbers we saw in the late winter were simply unsustainable, caused by historically low inventory at all price points. Now, instead of “historically low,” Bend’s inventory is just “super low.” Yes, 1.4 months is a big jump, but Bend is still very much a sellers’ market. &&&Inventory should continue to increase through the summer, but buyers will continue to get excited about properties with the most desirable features in the most desirable locations. Interest rates peaked in the middle of May but have dropped a bit since. &&&As a seller, you may have the kind of property that is almost certain to attract a bidding war, or you may have the kind of property that doesn’t stand out so much from the competition. But in either case, it’s as important as ever to price your home correctly. &&&Properties are still going off the market in a median of just 5 days, and sitting on the market for too long will still cause you to lose a lot of leverage. Your home needs to be listed at a price that attracts the maximum interest out of the gate, and potentially multiple offers. Buyers are still anxious after losing out over the past few very competitive months and are still willing to put quite a bit on the table. &&&While we don’t see the bottom-line shifting too much from here in terms of sale prices, it could very well be easier to sell your home now than it will be in a few months, when inventory should be higher.

April’s numbers show a clear shift starting to take place in Bend’s market. Pending sales are down 11% month-over-month, while new listings are up 13%. As a result, Bend’s inventory shot up from 0.67 months in March 2022 to 1 month at the end of April. &&&One month of inventory is still very low, and most properties are still going off the market as fast as ever. But March and April’s numbers indicate that Bend’s market is starting to depressurize. Anecdotally, at the end of April, we started to see properties sit on the market longer, and we predict that the shift will be even more visible in May’s numbers. &&&With that said, Bend’s median sale price stayed flat in April, hovering near record highs at $775,000. The trendline for list prices in Bend is still moving upward. &&&Bend’s market could very well reach a tipping point in the next couple of months where more properties start to sell for below list price. In April, though homes still went for an average of 2.5% above list.

First, the good news: inventory is up significantly in Bend after plunging to record lows during the late winter. New listings are up 35% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year, while buyer activity is lagging behind last year’s. &&&The bad news: although sale prices have dropped 2% month-over-month, they’re still really, really high. Some relief may be in sight, however. &&&March’s pending sales had a median list price of just $680,000. Granted, homes have been selling for well above list price in Bend, but that should give us a basic sense of what sale prices should look like in April. We could certainly see prices drop 10% month-over-month. &&&Context is important, though. The winter months of 2021-22 were exceptionally active for properties at the higher end of Bend’s market, but now properties at the lower end are getting bought up, and that’s shifting the numbers. Pending sales are down year-over-year in the $1.3 million-plus range, making it look like sellers are capitulating more than they actually are. &&&In other words, buyers in the sub-$700k range may not find much relief in spite of Bend’s shifting bottom line. With interest rates rising more quickly than anticipated, even if prices do drop somewhat, financed buyers won’t have any more purchasing power than they did before. On the other hand, more and more people will be pushed out of Bend’s market, and buyers are likely to have more choices earlier on than they did in 2021.

Hitting record sale prices during the winter is unheard of in Bend, but that’s exactly what happened in February. The median sale price jumped up all the way to $787,500, an astonishing 14% month-over-month and 33% year-over-year increase. &&&In 2021, exceptionally low inventory in the winter set the stage for prices to increase even further in the spring. Well, inventory is even lower this year, but it remains to be seen whether prices will ramp up from here. February’s pending sales were listed at a median of $750,000, so March’s median sale price will be lower. &&&List prices are on the up-and-up, however, hitting a median of $859,950. Sellers won’t be eager to make concessions, and buying pressure will increase as temperatures start to climb. &&&It’s important, though, to put all of these numbers into context. While that $859,950 is a record high, it’s actually only a 12% year-over-year increase. There’s just more activity at the higher end of Bend’s market than there was a year ago, driving the median sale price way higher. &&&The run on high-end homes should continue for the foreseeable future. But with the lower end of Bend’s market becoming more and more unaffordable and interest rates starting to go up a bit, the competition may not be as frenzied as it was in 2021. That’s pretty much the only silver lining we’re seeing – you’ll still have to pay a lot more, no matter your price point.

Here we go again: Bend’s inventory is back at record lows as we open the New Year, dropping 25% month-over-month to just 0.6 months in January. Meanwhile, prices tied the record highs that we saw in November, reaching a median of $690,000. &&&That’s all in spite of the signals we saw in December that buyer activity might be cooling down. Homes were spending longer on the market, going pending in a median of 18 days. In January, though, that figure was down to 11 days. &&&List prices fell back to a median of $690,00, with a number of new listings between $550k and $700k. Plenty of buyers took advantage, though pending sales did stay flat month-over-month in January. That could indicate some hesitation to purchase at the inflated prices we’re seeing now. &&&Overall, new listings were up 15% month-over-month. That could turn down the pressure valve a bit, and prices may stay relatively flat until the spring buying season begins in earnest. &&&That’s a pretty big “maybe” though, especially with homes still going off the market at a rapid clip. Meanwhile, list prices are still hovering around $830,000, with Bend’s $1 million-plus market remaining exceptionally active.

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